Last week brought the first—and surprising—rumor from AppleInsider of an OLED touch bar above a new MacBook Pro (MBP) keyboard. At the time, I tweeted an image I mocked up of what that touch bar may represent.
This week brings a fresh rumor, including a supposed spy shot, of the OLED touch bar, so I thought I’d write a blog post to further explain my mockup from last week, with the amazing ways it could be used on a Mac.
While responding to a tweet yesterday by Neil Cybart (@NeilCybart), I suddenly had an epiphany about the strange difference between the original iPhone and the iPad Pro.
Neil’s tweet was about an anticipated and continued drop in sales for iPads:
My response was much like the refrain from a real estate agent, but instead of location, location, location, I said this:
And that got me thinking about just how much has changed in the mobile industry over the past 8 years, since the introduction of the iPhone. (It can hardly be called the “mobile” industry anymore, though, as the iPad Pro at 12.9˝ is now larger than the Retina MacBook at 12˝, and iOS & Android work on everything from watches to TVs to cars to phones to laptop-like tablets.)
So, what was the epiphany?
The other day I told you about how OS X may become a legacy operating system. That won’t happen overnight; it’ll take a few years. Today I’d like to discuss what might happen in the meantime. I’ll take a bunch of seemingly unrelated facts and see if I can form a realistic story out of them.
I’ve been thinking a lot about Apple’s App Stores lately, especially the Mac App Store which has had so much grumbling about it on Twitter and the blogosphere. In case you haven’t heard, the main complaints are: the Mac App Store doesn’t have as many features as the iOS App Store, apps seem to sit in the queue for longer periods before being approved, apps are sandboxed much like iOS apps, there’s no upgrade pricing for apps, there are no free trials available, and it’s hard to discover new apps based on a very primitive search mechanism.
When a piece of software, such as the Mac App Store appears to be abandoned by Apple, two things immediately spring to mind: either it really is being abandoned and Apple is quietly suggesting you move along without it, or Apple has a huge redesign in progress and doesn’t want to expend time & money on the old version but the new version isn’t ready yet. So they just stay quiet.
A subset of the second option (or, perhaps, a combination of the two options) is that the Mac App Store is going to be abandoned because OS X apps will become more like iOS apps, and there will be a grand unification of the app stores into one App Store.
It’s not too hard to conjure up a story for a unified App Store; here’s some evidence for that.
https://twitter.com/stroughtonsmith/status/664633260434157568
Now, it’s possible that I’m conjuring up theories out of thin air, but all these data points seem to make sense when you think that Apple is working on a unified App Store with unified apps that run on iOS, watchOS, tvOS, AppleOS(?), and OS X.
There would be a collection of APIs that, if developers stick to them, apps would run on all Apple devices and OSes. This API collection would comprise most or all of iOS as well as a large subset of OS X (the parts shared with iOS). Of course there will still be some platform- and device-specific abilities, since a Watch is not a TV.
Apps could use non-UI libraries that are shared across all devices, perhaps having different sets of storyboards to define the UI specifically for each type of device. (Even if you unify the APIs, it’s unreasonable to expect a Watch app to look or work the same as a TV app.)
Once the app was uploaded to the App Store, Apple could use the BitCode intermediate format to compile it for Ax ARM (iOS, tvOS, watchOS), Bx ARM (AppleOS, which otherwise would have no apps on Day One) and, possibly, Intel (OS X).
Developers and enterprises that create iOS or OS X apps have to start thinking about a unified system.
So what might the timeline be for this unified API, App Store, and ARM-based laptop- or desktop-like devices?
Apple is rumored to be releasing Apple Watch 2 in March 2016 or thereabouts. It would be unlikely that a unified API would debut at that announcement since too many other things would need to happen. But WWDC 2016 could see a big push with OS X 10.12 and iOS 10 becoming even more alike and more shared APIs and Xcode 8. Then, of course, autumn 2016 could see new hardware, perhaps an ARM (A10X or a new B1 CPU) convertible tablet/laptop hybrid, or even an ARM-based MacBook running iOS or AppleOS. And that would be a good time to debut a unified App Store for iOS, tvOS, AppleOS, and OS X.
Certainly, I’ve gotten some details wrong and over-interpreted a few data points. But I think it’s clear that something big is coming, whether it’s actually a unified API and App Stores, or just steps along the way.
(As I’m writing this, Apple announced that Phil Schiller will now be in charge of the App Store, along with most other developer functions.)
I believe it’s a mistake to continue thinking that OS X will live on forever as its own separate OS and App Store. Apple is too incentivized to make things easier for itself and third party apps by unifying CPU architectures, APIs, OSes, and App Stores. How exactly it’s going to work and what the timelines are is open to speculation.
Developers and enterprises that create iOS or OS X apps have to start thinking about a unified system.
Don’t think iOS apps never have to worry about non-touch screens or laptops or desktops. Don’t think OS X apps can be kept out of the App Store forever, or that they won’t be required to be sandboxed, or that OS X apps will be priced differently from iOS apps.
These will be challenging times for developers, businesses, and business models. It’s a very different world from even 10 years ago. Look to the future and embrace change. It’s coming.
Craig Federighi revealed many interesting tidbits when you read the transcript–and read between the lines–of his talk with John Gruber of Daring Fireball on The Talk Show podcast.
First let me tie this into yesterday’s post by talking about the maturation of iOS by bringing in features from OS X, and then I’ll talk about the hugely ambitious plans to take Swift Everywhere.
You might have missed the fact that Apple’s iPad Pro is about 50% faster than the new Retina MacBook. That’s right, Apple’s ARM chip running iOS is faster–for the same price point–as an Intel chip running on OS X.
As Apple’s mobile devices–powered by their AX series of processors–become more powerful, the inevitable question comes up: Whither OS X and Intel?
I’ve long wondered whether OS X would be ported to the ARM architecture to work on a MacBook-like device that used an Apple A10 chip (or maybe a new B-series).
The other possibility, of course, is that the opposite happens: instead of OS X coming to ARM, iOS (already on ARM) would gain a mouse-and-keyboard interface. And, just as watchOS and tvOS were created to handle the Crown and Siri Remote, there would be a new AppleOS or mouseOS or macOS that would be based on iOS but have a different user interaction mechanism.
I used to be on the fence about which option Apple could take, and thought it was a 50:50 probability as to whether OS X would be ported to ARM or whether iOS would gain mouse-and-keyboard functionality.
But a while back, Benedict Evans, a VC analyst at Andreesen-Horowitz, tweeted this:
“Apple has replaced operating systems before. iOS will replace OS X in due course too. Modern versus legacy.”
And ever since then, I’ve come more and more into his camp, thinking he’s absolutely right. Let me explain why.
Your business or enterprise has an iOS app for iPhone and/or iPad, and you’re intrigued by the new app support on Apple TV and tvOS. Should you port your app to tvOS?
It seems like a fairly easy decision. Despite its different name, tvOS is very similar to iOS and has many of the same foundational building blocks. Much like Apple Watch and watchOS, Apple TV and tvOS allow you to build much of your app without changes.
But there are both technical and user experience reasons that feed into the decision on whether to port your app.
Apple did something very un-Apple-like for the debut of Apple TV. About 6 weeks before the Apple TV debuted, Apple held a lottery and sent some (many?) iOS developers a genuine 4th edition Apple TV for testing. For just a buck. This allowed developers to use a real TV and a real Siri Remote during development.
Apple TV and Siri Remote. Image courtesy of Apple.
This may not seem like a big deal, since Apple provides simulators for iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, and Apple TVs. But it was clear with the launch of the Apple Watch that not having a real device with a new user interaction model was a handicap to many developers.
The initial batch of Apple Watch apps were, well, let’s just say uneven. Now there were some technical reasons for that beyond developers’ control but, still, not having a Watch handicapped many an app.
Was the launch of Apple TV any different?
Everybody thinks they love the web. How could you not? “Apps” run the same everywhere on any device.
Well, that’s the theory, anyway. But you typically watch a blank screen—or, at best, some colored boxes—while the UI takes time to refresh. Not just once, but over and over again.
Sure, they’re adding new functionality all the time, but web apps are severely limited in what they can do compared to a native app. Yes, there are JavaScript bridges, but that adds more time and complexity.
Even the last bastion of web popularity—news sites and blogs—are now being subsumed by native news outlets like Facebook instant articles and Apple News.
But, but… what about Deep Linking, you ask? Both iOS and Android have deep linking now, so it’s no longer a web-only concept.
But displaying formatted text in a web view is so much easier than creating it on native platforms, you say. Well, since at least version 8, iOS text views have the ability to display HTML-formatted text. This is true even on tvOS on Apple TV, which doesn’t have a web view at all. Problem solved.
And look how things are progressing. Apple Watch doesn’t have any web functionality—and neither does Apple TV. The push is on for native apps.
Surprisingly, it was Google who put the final nail in the coffin.
Google just announced (or, rather, leaked the news) that
There’s been a lot of hand-wringing for the past few months about the perceived quality of Apple’s software, and it seems to have reached fever pitch with yesterday’s post by Marco Arment (http://www.marco.org/2015/01/04/apple-lost-functional-high-ground).
Rather than whine about any perceived “losing” on Apple’s part, let me describe what I think is happening, what’s driving those changes, and how long those drivers might compel change into the future.
What’s happening?
The claim is that Apple’s <insert software name here> is buggy and/or getting buggier. <Insert software here> can refer to any or all of iOS 7, iOS 8, OS X 10.9, OS X 10.10, Xcode, Swift, iPhoto, etc.
I agree with most of the Apple-software-quality-is-declining blog posts in terms of individual problems they’ve pointed out. Yes, the iOS 8.0.1 bug fix went terribly wrong. Yes, there are problems with rotation handling in iOS 8. Yes, Xcode’s code formatter crashes constantly when writing Swift code (although this seems to have been mostly fixed recently). Yes, OS X 10.10 had wifi problems.
In Apple’s defense, consider the fact that the iOS 8.0.1 problem was detected within hours, and fixed in a day or two. It was also due to a configuration issue that wasn’t tested on live phone networks. Also in Apple’s defense, consider that none of these software quality problems resulted in lost data. Anyone around for OS X’s early days remembers the 10.3 Oxford chip set problem with Firewire 800 devices, and how that *did* result in lost data. http://www.cnet.com/news/firewire-800-drives-with-oxford-922-apple-statement-lacie-wiebetech-owc-updates-oxford-statement-taking-precautions/
Now this doesn’t mean I think Apple deserves a Get Out of Jail Free card. I mean, when you ship a laptop with no physical network jack and then you ship an OS update that messes up wifi, well, your customers deserve to be angry at their loss of productivity.
So, sure, Apple has botched a few things, but I think it’s pretty obvious that they’ve botched things at least as bad in the past. So let’s not bring up the “this wouldn’t happen if Steve Jobs were around” mantra, OK? Great.
What’s driving these quality problems?
Are there more problems than in the past? Yes, but that’s because of the enormous amount of change lately.
Despite the fact that Apple is famous for having a limited number of hardware devices for sale, this is an enormous amount of change. I can’t emphasize this enough. For the past two years, Wall Street has been saying Apple wasn’t innovating—yet this year Apple revealed enormous changes in APIs and devices that it has been working on in secret for 2 or more years.
So what’s driving these software quality problems? In a word, change. Enormous change, at a rapid pace.
Why is there this enormous ecosystem change?
OK, so enormous, rapid change means that software is harder to get right, out the door. But why? Why is Apple creating enormous change so rapidly?
The answer to that is complicated. It’s a lot of things: competition for users, competition for developers, and changes within Apple.
It’s not just Apple vs. Microsoft anymore. Apple is competing for users with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook. The biggest challenges are Google—with Android, Chrome, search, and services—and Facebook, with the largest social network in the world. Court rulings have demonstrated that it’s hard for Apple to protect the difficult, multi-year work involved in device and UX design with intellectual property rights (patents). Apple has to compete a different way, so it’s going to be constant innovation.
Apple’s also competing for developers. Google has lots of developer APIs for its services, Facebook has Parse, and of course Microsoft has myriad popular developer tools both for Windows and the cloud.
The third area that has driven so much change is the shuffling of Apple’s management. Not only has Steve Jobs passed away, but also Tim Cook fired Scott Forstall. While neither of these events is cause for alarm, both Jobs and Forstall had strong opinions about user experience that conflicted with Jony Ives and possibly others at Apple. That resulted in the quick jettisoning of the ostensibly dated look of iOS 6 and OS X 10.9—and its skeuomorphic baggage—and the new streamlined look, motion effects, and transparency effects of iOS 7 and OS X 10.10. That executive shuffling may also have resulted in the new larger iPhones, requiring lots of rethinking of developer tools for layout out apps.
So what does the future hold?
OK, we have enormous change, driven by internal and external forces (management changes and competition). Can we expect this to continue? Are Apple users doomed to eternal software glitches?
Well, I think it’ll continue for the next 6 months at a minimum. We still have the iPad 6 Pro/Plus coming, which may require more UX and API changes. We have the Apple Watch, for which Apple has released a preliminary SDK, but promises even more changes in a year or so. Apple TV is set for a refresh. CarPlay is in its infancy. And now Mattt Thompson is thinking Swift may be only the beginning of a much bigger change for developer tools and APIs (The Death of Cocoa: http://nshipster.com/the-death-of-cocoa/).
So hold on tight, folks. The next year may involve almost as many changes as the past year. And there may be more glitches along the way.
My feeling is that this is unavoidable, with the enormous change that is happening at Apple.
The good news, though, is that I don’t think this rapid rate of change is sustainable. And I don’t mean just users and developers. I think Apple has some very sharp people, but even they cannot sustain this rapid change of pace forever.
The rapid pace of change will ebb and flow. Remember, Apple doesn’t come out with amazing new category-killer devices every year. There are 5-10 years between new categories: Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, and now Apple Watch.
So this torrid pace will continue for a year, and then I think it will calm down. And then Apple’s software developers can catch up. And 3rd party developers can catch up. And users will be able to breath a sigh a relief. But not before this tumultuous 2-year period (we’re half way through it now) is over.
Software.
Sure, everyone wants new devices, and new devices are a key part of Apple’s ecology, but devices without software (apps) are meaningless. Take Windows Phone… please.
OK, so some people are talking about OS X Yosemite and iTunes 12 being unveiled tomorrow. Sure, that’s software, but we’ve heard all about Yosemite at WWDC in June, and iTunes will get a new coat of paint but otherwise won’t be significantly different.
I’m talking about major software changes. What am I talking about?
Lou Miranda 